Dark Clouds Looming Over Near-Term Outlook According to Fannie Mae's Economics & Mortgage Market Analysis Group

Housing Activity Expected to Weaken, Despite Recent Declines in Long-Term Interest Rates

WASHINGTON, DC — The economy was hit by a barrage of disappointing news during the last month, which led to a significant downgrade in the overall macro economic forecast released today by Fannie Mae's (FNMA/OTC) Economics & Mortgage Market Analysis Group. While the August 2011 Economic Outlook does not forecast a double dip recession, the downgraded forecast reflects the Group's view that the probability of another recession is close to a coin toss. For all of 2011, economic growth is expected to downshift to 1.4 percent from 3.1 percent in 2010. Growth is expected to pick up in 2012, but only to about 2.0 percent, compared with 3.1 percent projected in the July forecast.

"Key factors, including revisions to gross domestic product (GDP) data, have revealed that we have a bigger hole to dig out of, which explains the consumer angst over the lack of employment growth," said Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan. "Moreover, European financial market and fiscal policy turmoil, coupled with the U.S. debt ceiling debate, have hit on consumer confidence, which is at recessionary levels."

"Macro economic factors are clearly driving the mindset of consumers and housing is being impacted by this," Duncan continued. "However, housing has moved into second position behind general economic concerns among consumers, which is demonstrated in our National Housing Survey results. Our July data shows that 70 percent of Americans think the economy is on the wrong track, up from 60 percent a year ago. In turn, despite historically low interest rates, consumers are still saying they don't see this as a good time to go out and borrow money to buy a house."

Housing activity is expected to weaken along with the overall economy due to a renewed decline in business and consumer confidence and a softening hiring trend. One exception is the rental housing market. The rental vacancy rate (the share of rental housing that is vacant and for rent) plunged from 9.7 percent to 9.2 percent in the second quarter of 2011, the lowest rate in nine years. This is consistent with the declining trend in the homeownership rate, indicating that a rising share of households have shifted to renting over owning.

For an audio synopsis of the August 2011 Economic Outlook, listen to the podcast on the Economics & Mortgage Market Analysis site at www.fanniemae.com. Visit the site to read the full August 2011 Economic Outlook, including the Economic Developments Commentary, Economic Forecast, and Housing Forecast.

Also available via link from the Economic Developments Commentary is the Multifamily Market Commentary by Kim Betancourt, Director, Multifamily Economics and Market Research. The Commentary provides data on the rebound of multifamily property sales in the second-quarter of 2011.

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economics & Mortgage Market Analysis (EMMA) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the EMMA group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the EMMA group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.

Fannie Mae exists to expand affordable housing and bring global capital to local communities in order to serve the U.S. housing market. Fannie Mae has a federal charter and operates in America's secondary mortgage market to enhance the liquidity of the mortgage market by providing funds to mortgage bankers and other lenders so that they may lend to home buyers. Our job is to help those who house America.